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The following is a summary of the Questions and Answers, pulled from the Newsvine comment thread below:
Chuck,
Just one question, why has MSNBC invested so much time and energy to Mr. B. H. Obama?
-jade-log
This thread has certainly been all over map... We've given lots of attention to both nominees. As for the question about the so-called Bradley effect; don't believe the hype... Obama's not over-polling... "undecided" might be over-polling but not Obama. I do think there are some folks sitting in undecided who have no plans to vote for Obama but maybe just can't bring themselves to say they are for McCain yet. or maybe they'll end up with Nader or Barr. But the days of folks lying to pollsters are SUPPORTING a black candidate are over. Harold Ford's candidacy showed us that.
Are McCain's negative "celebrity" adds indicative of a candidate who believes he is further behind that the polls seem to indicate? Or just politics as usual?
-Ian Walter
Voters always say negative ads don't work and yet, there's plenty of evidence that voters learn more information from negative ads than from positive ads. That's been the best measuring stick I've seen. Do a focus group of a slew of ads, some negative and some positive and then find out from the group, who learned what from the ads. You'll see that the negative ads are the ones that stick out. That said, I think McCain does run a risk of coming across TOO pessimistic; it's been a while since we elected the more pessimistic presidential candidate.
Ridge v. Biden would be an interesting debate; I'd probably give knowledge points to Biden but likeability points to Ridge; Both would do a good job appealing to working class whites, the potential swing voting group of this election.
Chuck - Based on your observations of the political scene, it seems that once again the indications are that people vote based on 'emotions' and not 'issues'.
If this is the case, do negative ads have a bigger impact on some demographics than others? Does it partially explain why negative ads seem to have an even higher influence on 'working class white' voters who feel besieged by economic conditions and are more sensitive to any criticism of military action which is the one area that offers them opportunity?
-greengal
Sooo, if Obama did go with Biden as a VP, what do you think would be a serious negative? (no difference in who is picked for the republican VP).
Better question: Who would be best from the Republicans VP to go against Joe Biden? Lieberman? Young scholar like Jindal?-smheart78
If I were McCain and wanting to pick a nominee to specifically debate Biden, I might pick Pawlenty. I think it's better to let Biden talk himself in circles. Pawlenty could play the aw-shucks card. Ridge could do well against him too. Lieberman and Romney would be eaten alive by Biden.
Hi Chuck,
I was wondering what you think on the narrative of the presidential race so far. All I keep hearing about is everything Obama cant do, and all the stuff he has to do better. Well, I thought Obama was leading in most polls. He is a newcomer to the scene and is less known, but he is still winning right now. Shouldn't the question be what McCain should be doing, and what he has to improve on? He is the better known candidate and pretty much never cracks 44% in any of the polls. His ceiling to me seems much lower, therefore he should be the one that has all of these problems to fix, not Obama. What do you think Chuck?
-tatro
I think more is expected of Obama. It just is what it is.
McCain was sort of the only candidate that they could support being that people are pretty much sick of the Republican Party right now because of the Bushies. McCain was the most centrist out of that camp, and therefore, probably the most electable against the Dems.
So, McCain was more of a default candidate, while Obama was one of hope and change and inspiration and all those other words his campaign and supporters claim.
-_jen_
_jen— gave a pretty good answer. I think the fact is voters THINK they know less about Obama than they do McCain; that might not be the truth but it's the perception voters themselves believe and that's tough to change. I think there will be more focus on McCain as the campaign gets going in the fall but ultimately this is going to continue to be a referendum on Obama's ability to be president.
One more question for ya Chuck. What do you make of the republicans for Obama, that just came out today. Do you think this will have any lasting influence on the race. Maybe it would give cover to some other republicans to jump the fence, or just give them a little assurance that the waters fine and Obama isn't the anti-crist, that McCain is trying to portray him as.
-tatro
None of the Republicans that were released are seen as major players... Frankly, I think Lieberman for McCain (if he ends up the VP for McCain) will be seen as a bigger party-switcher than Leach/Chafee etc. Obama needs a big player like Powell or Hagel.
Hello Chuck,
Do you have any insights into why the McCain campaign hasn't done any TV advertising in local Florida markets? What are the campaigns' feelings about how Florida currently stands? I know that most polls are not properly executed, but the public polls show McCain and Obama in a dead heat for that state's electoral votes.
-mjs6288
McCain camp believes its most persuadable voters in FL are snow-birds and aren't around in the summer. Simple as that...
Chuck
I'm obviously a Biden guy(don't know how he could pick anyone else...2 senators or not...seems he is a better "leader" than any of the "executives")...was a Hillary guy...an old Mccain/Biden guy in 2004... then settled on Obama when he came to NH and I saw ALL of the candidates (on both sides ) speak...a number of times for work and self. on this note...
My question ...
Has anyone counted the times that Biden has appeared on Meet the Press, Nightly News, This Week, Face the Nation, Charlie Rose, AC 360, Hardball....been interviewed by national Newspapers, spoken on a nationally broadcast event or panel or board...and then taken his 6 gaffes or so and averaged them compared to other candidates.
I would really like to see the numbers on this "gaffe machine".
(the rest of this is just thoughts on this feel free to skip my blather...)
Considering he is the guy putting out the fight from the dem side all the time (full of himself or not he puts up the fight for the past 7 years from the dems more than anyone)...
does it not seem like his average on gaffes when taken into consideration with the amount of times he speaks (fights for issues)... make most of them including Hillary and Obama and Mccain look like "gaffe machines."
and don't you think a Bayh or Sebelius or Kaine will have to start speaking up like Biden if they get the nod... and what happens when a non attack dog has to become an attack dog...gaffes.
and whose gaffes do you think will control a longer round of newscycles...Biden (the old guy who "stuck his foot in his mouth" like mccain where we know the guy so well...we know he gets by it and usually doesn't mean the bad part of his slip)
or the people who we don't know.
Just questions and wonder your thoughts as usual.
and by the way...I think McCain may still pick Ridge....but Pawlenty will be off the table if Obama picks Biden.
-dlwillson
Well, I think Biden is the frontrunner; I think the point made at the top about gaffes as a percentage of public chatter is an interesting study.... but politics doesn't work that way even if your metric is a fair one... Just ask Billy Beane... he keeps buying into all sorts of new baseball metrics and yet, what does the press report.
Still, for all the reasons stated above, Biden's a serious frontrunner for the VP slot...
OK one last question for ya Chuck.
I wanted to know what the deal was with Pennsylvania. On NBC's map you guys still have Pennsylvania in the toss up column. Every poll I have seen out of Pennsylvania has Obama up anywhere from 7%-11%. So, I was curious how this state isn't considered at least lean Obama?
-tatro
There are states which in August are tossups (like PA) that if by late Oct. are still in the same poll range, move to lean... PA is definitely on the bubble between toss-up and lean Obama right now...
Chuck my question doesn't relate to polling since at this stage of the campaign it probably doesn't mean much. No, my question goes to why MSNBC suddenly found the John Edwards story "newsworthy" after I believe you said that it wasn't in that category or at least was not until last Friday afternoon.
-Bill Harrison
This is quite the debate... Edwards as a story is a debate we've been having internally. He put his family front and center as one of the reasons to support him so on that score, he deserves to be outed as a hypocrite. On the other hand; he's currently a private citizen and has no role in governing anybody right now.
Chuck:
In case you're stuck in the Beltway echochamber and don't get it: McCain LOST ground this weekj shooting his mouth off about Russia, More people are more pissed off about McCain's bellicosity than they are about Putin starting a war in a country they don't know about or care about.
Comment?
-jfxgillis
I think McCain wanted to issue a more aggressive statement against Russia but Bush's response prevented him from doing that; The guy who seems to be the person who doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut in all this, is the president of Georgia. He seems to be putting the U.S. and Russia both in boxes.
Why hasn't the media reported the Aug 5, 2008 report from the CFTC about the amount of Oil speculation on NYMEX or Sen. Maria Cantwell's letter to the CFTC on Aug 8th? The latest information provides a different view for why oil prices have fallen during the last few weeks. Strongly indicating speculation
More information on Sen. Cantwell's website
"Robert McCullough of McCullough Research, an energy market expert who exposed Enron's market manipulation, has released a new statistical analysis research report of oil futures and spot market prices that is a convincing and substantive rebuttal to the interagency interim report. This report shows that the dramatic rise in oil prices in June 2008, and the subsequent fall in price in July 2008, can't be explained by any of the fundamentals of supply and demand. Instead, it could be a result of the trading strategies of major market players."
Financial Week
UPDATE 1 Big CFTC data revision raises oil traders eyebrows - Reuters Aug 5, 2008
-Stan-338585
I am VERY surprised there wasn't more focus in Congress on the speculation factor with oil prices. It seemed like a no-brainer issue for the Dem Congress and yet they didn't make a big deal out of it. Instead, they let themselves get cornered on the drilling issue. Big mistake in hindsight.
Why doesn't MSNBC focus on the lies in every one of McCain's attack ads? Last night one of Dan Abram's guest wanted to talk about it, but Dan wanted to focus on whether the ads were funny.
The "facts" about tax plans are extremely important issues for voters. Many are believing McCain's lies, which he repeats in every Town Hall Meeting.
Fact Check details the McCain lies about Obama's tax plan.
More Tax Deceptions August 8, 2008
Updated: August 12, 2008McCain misrepresents Obama's tax proposals again. And again, and again. McCain has been twisting tax facts about Obama as far back as June 10 ... These ads continue his long-running pattern of deception on taxes.
-Stan-338585
Most TV ads have lots of versions of the truth in this portion of the campaign, not just on the presidential level but on the senate and house levels as well. That said, I'd like us to spend more time each day doing TV ad fact-checking. We'll be doing more as the campaign wears on... (BTW, I hope folks are keeping track of all my coverage promises I've been making on these chats...)
I believe it is imperative for the media to educate the citizenry about the issues and the candidates. I also think our two-party system has and continues to fail us due to corporate influence and lobbyists, yet no one seems to believe in the possibility of a third-party candidate.
What plans do you have to cover or give exposure to third-party candidates for president?
-Aine MacDermot
I think Obama, Ron Paul and McCain have proven that it doesn't take a lot of money or a lot of insider support to raise awareness and money for their campaigns. So if Nader and Barr can't figure out how to run an effective enough campaign to create a groundswell to the point where we in the so-called MSM have to spend more time covering them, then they don't deserve to be covered.
Now, as for whether there ever will be a viable third party, my gut is no. I think a very wealthy businessman could create a temporary vehicle for a third-party (see Perot, Bloomberg etc.) but our system of elections in all 50 states is designed around a 2-party system. I think if a viable third party ever arose, it would either be consumed by one of the two major parties or the third party would replace one of the current two partys (a la Republicans and Whigs).
Chuck: who stands to benefit more from the Russia-Georgia conflict, McCain or Obama? Why?
-Richard Friedman-125619
Such a simple question and yet...
Well, I think on points, it benefits McCain because he's been crying foul about Putin for some time. He was calling for the booting of Putin and Russia from the G8 months ago... Now, it looks like it would have been the right call. But I think Obama didn't get hurt, per se, by this crisis. If anything, McCain's rhetoric has started to be toned down to something closer to what Obama said from the get-go. There's a chance this issue turns against McCain in that he seems to be too cozy with this Georgia president who strikes me as potentially a loose cannon. The guy seems more interested in appearing on TV than he does in getting his country through this crisis.
BTW, I think Putin did do one thing for Obama: eliminate Kaine and Sebelius from VP contention.
Chuck! I wasn't going to ask about Hillary Clinton since her campaign is over, but she apparently forgot to tell her former staffers that. Don't you think Howard Wolfson's comments this week about Hillary virtually being guaranteed a win in Iowa if Edwards wasn't in the race are completely out of line?
First of all, polls consistently show that Edwards supporters flocked to Obama after he dropped out (including myself and every Edwards supporter I've talked to.) Although Hillary herself has been very outspoken in her support of Obama, her surrogates and even Bill Clinton have given at best luke warm endorsements of their fellow Democrat. How completely stupid do you have to be to rain on the parade of a political party that has had VERY little to smile about during the last eight years? Does Wolfson really want to be that guy?
This whole thing is completely transparent. The Clinton campaign is bitter, bitter, bitter. I know they haven't had much experience with losing, but really, they should be better at it than this. In my opinion, they need quit whining before the Clinton brand is irreparably tarnished. What do you think?
It's so cool that you do this for us. I really feel in the loop. Thanks again. Taylor
-PeytonTaylor
Here's my favorite way to answer "what if" questions in politics. What if my aunt had a *&^*, she'd be my uncle.
Bottom line: campaigns can always be war-gamed in hindsight. I think there's a better chance that if Edwards had been a non-factor in Iowa, Obama would have rolled to a bigger victory in Iowa and would have run the January table. By Nov. 1, 2007, he would have had just about every major union on his side as well as all that money etc... it could have been worse for Clinton had Edwards not split the early anti-Hillary vote in those early states.
Do you think Arizona might actually be a little closer than some people think? There is a large population of Hispanics there, and they are going for Obama right now 65%-35%.
-tatro
I completely believe Arizona will be a high single digit state... 54-46 maybe... It's simple demographics combined with the fact that McCain's popularity in the state has been SLOWLY eroding... Not enough for Obama to put the state in play... but enough for the next Democrat to run against a Republican NOT from Arizona to put the state in play.
I am wondering what is going on with the rest of the Republicans? Has their dissent from McCain been quashed? I keep waiting to hear of a sign of mutiny. [Even the Dems even had rumors about Hillary submitting her name at the convention.]
-Leah M
I think Republicans are resigned to the fact that it's going to be a bad year; It's not a nomination many believe is worth having; I disagree; I think nominations are ALWAYS worth having.
Chuck:
What will be the impact of Senator McWiki's plagiarism? Even those of us on the 'Vine refuse (generally) to use Wikipedia as a source, given its vast amount of misinformation. In that light, will it be particularly damaging for the "foreign policy" candidate to rely so heavily upon it in his Georgia/Russia speech? And, will the campaign have to back off their attacks on Obama for not adequately addressing the situation, given that their address was no more informed than any third-grader with a computer could find (and post) on Wikipedia?
Thanks, Chuck!
-Gene in Mass
I thought this story was a bit unfair... Some facts looked similar to an online reference site? Look, I have my issues with Wikipedia; I think the whole premise of the tool will mean we'll have C- information... that said, what the campaign MAY have copied was some factual information; McCain didn't copy his position on Georgia from Wikipedia.
Chuck: What do you make of the political gridlock going on in Washington? Do you feel that the Senate and Congress realise that the American public has had just about enough of their buffoonery?
The Dems are no better than the GOP, time for a third party?-Luther28
I think we'll find out in the first six months of the new administration. If substantial legislation isn't passed in the first six months of '09 then both parties could find themselves in big trouble.
From yesterday's 'Motorcycle' First Read article. "Hard to tell the truthfulness."
Previous article titles:
Ohio Ad: Is it Fair?
Is the Exxon-McCain Hit Fair?Come on, Domenico's just a little biased, right? It took the rest of us two seconds to find the quotes and votes associated with the motorcycle ad. His title is 'Political Researcher', right? Also, we never see a headline in First Read that asks if the hits on Obama are fair until FactCheck dispels the myths. We got two McCain 'is it fair' in two days. I guess my question is, yes, is Domenico right leaning?
But as the Center for Responsive Politics pointed out last week, while McCain has received nearly three times the amount of money from the oil and gas industry that Obama has, Obama actually has received more contributions from Exxon than his GOP rival has.
Don't you guys have the responsibility to qualify this remark as employees of Exxon? I mean any person that donates to a campaign has to list their employer. I would hardly say that my contributions to Obama can in any way be attributed to an endorsement by Warren Buffett. I know you had broken it down in a previous post, but to make a blanket statement like that deserves at least some qualification.
That being said, First Read is the best of the major news tickers.
-Rodney Hopper
Domenico is one of the toughest fact-checkers I've ever worked with; I think if you judge his work over time, you'll see that....
We have a blast with First Read and we really only get it done with just a few of us; the good news is that we'll adding a new face very soon.
Abraham Lincoln had only one term as a House of Rep member before being elected president. Why isn't that fact presented more when Obama's lack of experience is brought up?
-olderisbetter
That fact is brought up a lot. And there's no comparison Obama loves more than good 'ol Abe
Recently, McCain joked that if he was elected, the first thing he would do is call Tom Ridge from his "well-deserved vacation". Many took this to mean that McCain was not going to pick Ridge as his VP. What say you? You've been saying Ridge as a potential for a long time.
-Andrew (aka Online Apps)
And then the VERY next day, he does an interview with the Weekly Standard making the case for Ridge as VP... go figure.
I think, though, that if McCain goes pro-choice, he'll go Lieberman.
I wanted to bring something to your attention regarding satellite channel lineups.
Currently, the Dish Network 'Family' package has 'Fox News' and 'Headline News', but no MSNBC or CNBC. The Family package is the lowest package a person can get ($19.95/mo).
I'd gladly trade in both Fox and Headline for MSNBC, or even CNBC for that matter. We had MSNBC and CNBC as 'free previews' these past few months and I have to say, it's nice to watch a political show and not yell at the screen.
Do you know why the NBC news stations are the only cable news outlets not on this package and what can we do as subscribers to get a real cable news network on our TV's, besides upgrading 2 levels?
-Rodney Hopper
MSNBC's new president, Phil Griffin, is on a mission to improve MSNBC's cable and satellite carriage; It's a shame how badly our channel is treated by Comcast and a few others. MSNBC's ratings are remarkable when you consider how poor our carriage is right now. But it gets better all the time and we have folks on the case.
Does Rick Noriega have a shot against John Cornyn? Latest polls are showing John with only a ten point spread and attracting less than 50%. He also had that abysmal Big John ad.
What about Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker?
This is a close race thus far, but still in a reliably red Mississippi.-Rodney Hopper
If Texas were a cheaper state, I'd say Cornyn would be in some trouble... His job rating and personal poll numbers are very mediocre; but the state is just too big and too expensive for Democrats to sink a bunch of money in the state. Noriega has an interesting background (and he tries to pitch himself as another Jim Webb just without the resume...) Texas is a future swing state; my guess is by 2016, the two parties will be on par but for now, this is Cornyn's race to lose and he'd have to make multiple BIG JOHN ads to blow this one at this point.
As for Miss. Senate; that's a pure toss-up race; close to the end.
Do you think this 'attack the Obama supporters' campaign is going to work for McCain?
Is there a precedent for this? Has a modern candidate ever berated the electorate this way?
-Rodney Hopper
I think this is bait by McCain; I think he's daring Obama to attempt to attack detractors. See if they can bait Obama into acting in a condescending way toward McCain and his supporters.
I know I'm inundating you with questions here, but I think what you're doing with these Q&A's is great. I'll leave you with four more quick ones until next week:
How often do the NBC/WSJ polls come out and when will the next one be released?
Did you sign up to get your Obama VP text message?
Do you think McCain really thinks that Obama has 'Dreamy Eyes'?
You vs Olbermann in a boxing match. Who wins?
-Rodney Hopper
On average, there's a new NBC-WSJ poll every five weeks... our next one comes out next Wednesday. We're also doing a special post-convention poll that will come out the week of Sept. 8.
Of course I signed up; i don't know a member of the media who did not.
I think McCain's more intrigued by Obama's ears.
Keith knows better than to challenge me in a boxing match; I'm just too quick... he's got a height advantage, but I'm quick.
Hey Chuck You might not get to my question but I'll ask it anyway. Why hasn't the media commented on McCain acting like he's already the president when he was talking about the Russia/Georgia conflict. Obama got all type of coverage about acting to presidential in Berlin. I just think they should both be held to the same standards.
Also everyone keeps saying people don't know Obama. Well if they don't know him by now how are they gonna get to know. If he's the celebrity everyone says he is they should know him. People need to do research for themselves on the candidates.
-Rhonda-303565
A question about McCain and Georgia turned into bashing us on not covering McCain enough... You guys are good. Look, I think when all is said and done about this campaign, you'll view our coverage as very fair and even-handed on the promoting and the bashing.
Hey Chuck - sorry about the slow news week with Obama in Hawaii! LOL
Just a few questions: 1)You mentioned on FR about Lieberman being McCain's attack dog. Who, if anyone, is playing that role for Obama and are they being effective?
2)On the McCain-Reed fundraiser, do you think the Obama camp, or Dems in general, are going to play up the hypocrisy of this event and do you think McCain will find a way to "cancel"?
3)70's disco or 80's glam rock?
-MI, Rochester NY
I'm not sure Obama's found a credible attack dog as good as Lieberman right now; both McCaskill and Kerry are pretty good for Obama but Biden, as the running mate, might be the best attack dog Obama can find.
As for the Ralph Reed fundraiser, I am betting Reed doesn't end up showing up. I think McCain's nat'l HQs didn't know what their Georgia leadership team was up to.
On the last question: it really depends on the mood. Both are guilty pleasures. Whenever a top 100 of anything pops up on VH1 classic and it is either '70s or '80s, I'm all over it. The best bad glam rock love ballads cost me 20 bucks on Itunes.
What does the GOP need to win a statewide election in NJ (my state)? Mostly, we've run liberal/moderate guys (Dick Zimmer, Doug Forrester, etc). It shouldn't be this hard, since Corzine is immensely unpopular and Lautenberg just hit over 50% for the first time since Labor Day.
-Andrew (aka Online Apps)
Ah... New Jersey, the state I like to refer to as the Republican Party's great white whale.
The thing I would NOT do if I were the GOP is poll before Oct. 15 in the state. It's such a hard state to poll and voters don't seem to tune in until very late in the process. And when they tune in, they end up moving en masse to the Democrats. So I'm wondering if the state simply misleads Republicans into thinking the state's in play in August and September and then once voters are educated about the party I.D.s of the candidates, the Democrat picks up the lion's share of the undecided vote.
Think about the success Republicans have had in the state; Christie Whitman never crossed 50% in her wins... I think that tells you a lot about the uphill battle the GOP has in this state. I continue to be amazed at the success some, shall we say, flawed Democrats who end up having in the state.
I realize Clinton's campaign was a mess while she was saying she was ready to lead, but in general, can we assume how candidates run their campaigns is a true indicator of how they would run the presidency? Has anyone ever been lousy at being boss of their campaign team but was then a good president? (or they didn't get that far due to said lousiness?)
Conversely, have winning candidates who in their campaigns showed great organizational skills, decisiveness, etc. actually brought those skills to the office?
***Also, last week you said to ask you again about whether MSNBC will be streaming convention coverage. Thanks.
-Lenore K.
Look, overall, I do think we learn a lot about a potential president from how they run their campaigns; Sure, there are exceptions, but I do think how a candidate runs his campaign (delegates or doesn't etc.) says something about their managerial skills as leader of the free world.
BTW, I do believe we are streaming the convention coverage.
Put on your thinking cap! A few months ago, when Reverend Wright gave his way over the top interview at the press club, I told my wife I thought Wright was throwing himself under the bus to help Obama. She didn't think so, but my impression was that he really was trying to force Obama to make a clean break with him, because Wright thought he was hurting Obama. At the time, I told her, "Just wait, after this Wright will get a thousand opportunities to spout off in print, on TV, on the radio, everywhere. If I am wrong and he really is just a self-centered jerk, we will see him everywhere."
Well, here we are months later, and nary a peep from Reverend Wright. At least not that I have heard. No interviews, no talk shows, nothing in print, nothing on the air. I haven't even seen a new photo of him. I am convinced Wright sacrificed himself for the cause. (I am not suggesting any collusion, I think he decided to do it alone.)
So Chuck ---- Do you think it is possible Wright, the former marine, purposely drew fire to himself to save Obama?
-Tony C. SA TX
I think Wright realized that if he continued to inflict political damage on Obama, he'd only hurt his own legacy. Ask Jesse Jackson what it's like to cross Obama. It's not welcomed in the black community right now so I think Wright is in a self-imposed exile but not for the reasons of the original theory on this thread. I think it's for Wright's self-preservation.
This sounds ludicrous, but could Powell become Obama's VP pick? He's rumored to speak at the convention and endorse Barack. And he's a centrist moderate.
-Andrew (aka Online Apps)
The convention/endorsement report was 100% wrong. I think Powell wants to endorse Obama but he doesn't want to see his endorsement viewed through the prism of race. But the fact is he's VERY upset with McCain these days over a number of foreign policy issues. So Powell's gut is pushing him to Obama; he has a long friendship with McCain and would have supported him over Bush in 2000 if he had his druthers.
I bet we won't see Powell endorse until after the debates.
Dear Chuck,
I am very confused now about where the McCain campaign stands on the good senator being a 1 term or 2 term president. My suspicion is he will promise 2 terms but only be able to fulfill 1 term. We have all heard the quacking on day 1 statement McCain made about a 1 term presidency. This implies that McCain's choice for VP is extremely important not just for his party, but, for the whole country.
Given the above, I read that Romey's health-care plan in the state he governed is in serious financial crisis and we know running a small state, company or the Olympics is nothing like running the United States of America, Does that not make Romey a risky choice? Tom Ridge has the dubious distinction of panicking the entire country over terrorist attacks with a suggestion of using duck tape to survive a chemical attack. Tom Ridge has the leadership skills of a yes-man, and his state governing was lack-luster at best.
So wouldn't Obama's VP eat Tom Ridge or Romey alive in the VP debate?
Who really is a good RNC VP choice for the country, given both of the afore mentioned gentlemen have serious and obvious management\leadership issues in all seriousness?
-Don't spin me bro!
I think the bench on the GOP side is VERY thin, thinner than the Dem side. The most qualified guy has the wrong last name (Jeb Bush) and everyone else who MIGHT turn out to have presidential chops don't have enough experience (Crist, Jindal, Thune, Sanford etc.).
So, for now, I guess Pawlenty isn't a horrible choice... I'd say it's safer for McCain than either Romney or Ridge who both could cause McCain problems in his base.
Hi Chuck and Staff,
Here's my question for this session:
Will this year be a win or loss based on character, the issues or ideology voters?
-Pacific Northwest Blogger
Yes on all three... I think this is one of those deals where some voters will be focused on issues, some on character and a majority on ideology...
Chuck, During the campaign McCain has been taking some pretty personal shots at Obama's character. Like he would lose the war to win his campaign, or that he is an empty suit who hasn't accomplished anything. I have heard some people say that Obama, or one of his surrogates, should fire a personal shot back about McCain's character, maybe something about him cheating on his first wife with Cindy. Do you think it would be a wise move to fire a shot over the bow, just to let McCain know that if he wants to make it all about character then the Democrats are more than willing to return fire. So, what do you think Chuck?
-tatro
Going below the belt is never a good thing... and it can make a candidate look desperate; that said, I think Obama hasn't been tough enough on MCCain... the attack ads could be more creative so they stick out... they've been VERY pedestrian and I think blend into the background. McCain's attack ads have stuck out... Love 'em or hate 'em, they stick out... Obama's hits on McCain do not; that's what he'll need to change in the fall.
Is Elizabeth Dole in trouble in NC? I was down there recently and there were a ton of negative adds against her. (Incidentally, there were also a huge # of Obama bumper stickers in an area that in the past I have only seen Bush bumper stickers, and I saw no McCain bumper stickers or signs while I was there...NONE.)
-hpeterson
I think EDole is definitely in trouble... I think the best she can expect to do is win 52-48 but if this election turns into a mini-Dem wave, then she's probably not politically strong enough to hold off her foe. Kay Hagan isn't the best Dem recruit; a better one would already be ahead of Dole right now. But, yes, she's in big trouble.
Chuck, Do you think that McCain and his advisors hesitated in running negative ads during the Olympics. The negativity, and pretty obvious lies really stick out in contrast to the positivity of the broadcasts. Even if some of the charges stick, don't the ads ruin McCain's brand?
-JustinL
I do think the McCain camp's decision to pull their negative Olympic spot says something about how they might be worrying that the negative tone could have backfired during the Olympics. Notice the ad they are running now is the one about "washington being broken" -- not exactly an optimistic spot, but not negative on Obama.
As for the Powell question, I think he's wrestling with one big issue regarding Obama, how does he endorse and have it NOT interpreted through the prism of race.
Chuck,
Do you have any idea what Michael Bloomberg is up to these days? Who do you believe that he will support, if he decides to endorse publicly?
-mjs6288
He's been keeping somewhat of a lower profile... my gut says he'll end up endorsing McCain. The two have a very good relationship, better than what Obama has with the billionaire mayor.
Do you think the recent Georgia/Russia conflict is almost an october suprise for Mccain? Now he can talk tough and discuss this issue while avoiding his weaknesses. All the while, trying to paint Obama as weaker due to his less confrontational approach and the party's.
--TreHutch
Maybe... I do wonder if the conflict will influence Obama's VP choice. Biden may not have been at the top of the list last week, but I'm guessing he is now...
Could you talk a bit more about what you said last week, how one can't extrapolate primary turnout numbers to the general? Is this always the case?
I know you were talking about a nonactive GOP primary in NC, but I've seen turnout numbers in my area from Feb. 5 in state districts & in Congressional districts with Republican incumbents where Dem primary turnout was about double and triple that of recent primaries. (The GOP presidential race was still active then even if some local GOP races were uncontested.) If all these Dems were to vote with the party in November, these Republican incumbents would be out.
But are you saying these Dem turnout numbers are irrelevant to the general, that many of these people will end up voting for Republicans or not voting?-LenoreK
I think the Dem turnout numbers do tell us about Dem intensity.. what I was advising against was reading into the GOP primary turnout and wondering what it would mean for GOP turnout in the general.
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Don't mind the "competitiveness" at all. I am not in predicting game on this stuff, simply reporting it out. I can still tell you the White House is QUITE nervous all of its work on Olympia Snowe will get tossed aside. So we shall see...
