{"contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

Newsvine Q&A: Chuck Todd on U.S. Politics

I'm Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director. Please join me for another Q&A session here on Newsvine, on Thursday, August 7 starting at 3:30 ET, where we'll be discussing U.S. Politics and the unfolding presidential election. Feel free to post your questions here in advance, and please remember to vote for your favorite questions by clicking the small arrow in each comment box. Click here to read my last Q&A.

For those of you visiting us here for the first time, please know that Newsvine is an interactive web site designed for members to participate in thoughtful discussions about news-related topics. Feel free to take a look at the Newsvine Code of Honor, it's a short list of standards that existing members hold themselves to here.

{"contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
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{"commentId":2380280,"authorDomain":"mikerupert"}

Do you think that overexposure of Barack Obama could hurt him in the end in some way? I ask the question, but I think at the same time, they're probably addressing the issue already, and will probably adjust as the campaign goes on.

{"commentId":2380280,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"mikerupert"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 12:22 PM EDT
{"commentId":2390538,"authorDomain":"pmarthaspix"}

Do you realize that not a day goes by that I don't receive at least one email (from friends or family) that is a negative Obama "story", usually filled with lies AND can even be fact checked but most often is not. This also happened with the Kerry campaign.
When you talk about over exposure, I believe this is exactly what people are referring to. Why doesn't a major network do a story on this new type of dirty campaigning? Am I incorrect in making the jump to the assumption that these are all Republican motivated? I have NEVER gotten one slamming a Republican candidate.

{"commentId":2390538,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"pmarthaspix"}
  • 6 votes
#1.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 12:07 PM EDT
{"commentId":2392135,"authorDomain":"lsvedeman"}

I couldn't agree more with your assessment. Just look at what this past administration has done to this country and still too many would rather have criminals governing them instead of a bright, intelligent, and fair African American. By the way, I am an "older" white woman, and former Clinton supporter. Enough already. Think of your country and it's hard-working people!

{"commentId":2392135,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lsvedeman"}
    #1.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 2:37 PM EDT
    {"commentId":2392194,"authorDomain":"invisible-elephant"}

    That's because Republicans care about nothing but winning. They lied about John Kerry's honorable military service (despite the fact Bush was a draft dodger... oh the IRONY) and that got them another four years. They'll do it again.

    {"commentId":2392194,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"invisible-elephant"}
    • 3 votes
    #1.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 2:42 PM EDT
    {"commentId":2392560,"authorDomain":"lynne53"}

    Well Ian in Alabama, the Repubs have Corporate America in their pockets and they live to win! This truly is a referendum on Obama, which is why, Martha, you will continue to receive those emails. While McCain gets a pass, over and over.

    What's worse is that dishonesty is the new honesty, no wonder our children are conflicted and confused.

    {"commentId":2392560,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lynne53"}
    • 2 votes
    #1.4 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:15 PM EDT
    {"commentId":2392799,"authorDomain":"eddierepanich"}

    If people get tired of Obama at some point the spotlight will shift to McCain. This is not good for McCain. John McCain has some serious "flip-flops", particularly his comment that the Bush tax cuts offended his conscience. He now supports making those tax cuts permanent. McCain would do well to float under the radar. His best chance is to back into the Presidency just as he backed into to nominatation.

    {"commentId":2392799,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"eddierepanich"}
    • 2 votes
    #1.5 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:39 PM EDT
    {"commentId":2392944,"authorDomain":"theverybadbob"}

    Remember that you lose your bearings when no one listens to what you are saying.

    :-)

    {"commentId":2392944,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"theverybadbob"}
      #1.6 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
      {"commentId":2393301,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

      This "too much" hearing about Obama poll result is interesting to me... I think the fact it came just one week after the int'l trip has something to do with it... Let's see where things stand in a month on that same question.

      {"commentId":2393301,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
      • 5 votes
      #1.7 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
      {"commentId":2401466,"authorDomain":"mikerupert"}

      Thank you.

      {"commentId":2401466,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"mikerupert"}
        #1.8 - Fri Aug 8, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
        Reply
        {"commentId":2380284,"authorDomain":"Jen56"}

        Hi Chuck!

        I played hooky from work on Tuesday to see you moderate the 3 pm hour on MSNBC. Glad to see you in the driver's seat for a change. You did a great job!

        So here's my softball question to start you off -
        Which of your many MSNBC hat (analyst, moderator, columnist, etc.) is your favorite, and which do you find the most challenging?

        P.S. Check out the website for the Schenectady Curling Club - lots of cool info on curling!

        {"commentId":2380284,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Jen56"}
        • 4 votes
        Reply#2 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 12:22 PM EDT
        {"commentId":2393335,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

        Anchoring was a LOT harder than I expected... It was fun but wow, does it go by fast... So far, Ive enjoyed every hat...

        {"commentId":2393335,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
        • 2 votes
        #2.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
        Reply
        {"commentId":2380436,"authorDomain":"Jen56"}

        A real question now - on the Clinton brouhaha that Howard Fineman discusses.

        It appears from the tone of Howard F's column that he thinks (along with a number of Hillary supporters) that Obama should be the one to be "butt-kissing" to make nice and ensure that the Democrats win. It implies that there are still a lot of people out there who think that Hillary has not received what she, Bill, and her most ardent supporters feel is her due, what she is entitled to.

        I am wondering what this means for the Democratic party when the two factions are still so at odds - and obviously Howard Dean did not want to deal with this question when you talked to him! It bothers me that this lends credence to the rumors that the Clintons want to make sure Obama loses so that Hillary will be vindicated, and will be "entitled" to the nomination in 2012.

        Are there any party insiders who are willing to shed light on what exactly is going on? What exactly do the Clintons want? (Other than overturning Obama as the presumptive nominee, that is)

        {"commentId":2380436,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Jen56"}
        • 8 votes
        Reply#3 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
        {"commentId":2391315,"authorDomain":"lynne53"}

        Jen, I think you are spot-on. Imagine if Biden had won the nomination, do you think the Clintons would make such a fuss? Someone had to lose and someone had to win -- simple. I agree with Roland Martin's assessment of this whole thing. In additon, Barack has shown nothing but respect, that is, "as far as I know"

        What's worse in this scenario is that none of the Clintonites are thinking of the party, nor issues, nor Supreme Court appointees... only themsleves.

        {"commentId":2391315,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lynne53"}
        • 1 vote
        #3.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 1:18 PM EDT
        {"commentId":2391987,"authorDomain":"bobber"}

        Party insiders do not have the ability to "shed some light on exactly what is going on", that would require being truthful..The insiders, along with the media, are responsible for this situation. They force-fed this result, coming down the home stretch.

        I am an outspoken liberal democrat. The DNC and media have made it unlikey to vote for Obama. I truly resent their actions as far as their rules solutions (MI and FL), the lopsided tone of their commentary, their passion to end it before it was over and their total disregard for what the their voters might think.

        Oboma would have very likely made history in 8-years. He would have been seasoned, he would have a real record for the national scene and we would have likely been in a democratic rebound from Bush. A known democrat (Edwards, Hillary . . .) would have won this easily.

        The DNC blew it. They fell inlove with a dynamic speaker and the chance to make history. When it is all over we will still have that speaker; history will made some other day.

        Will they ever learn? Even from a loss? I doubt it.

        In November I will write in another democrats name. Is that contributing to a loss? Maybe . . . probably.

        Provide me with a leader to follow, but don't assume you can demand that I will follow. Shame on the DNC. As for the media I mhave learned to expect less.

        {"commentId":2391987,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"bobber"}
          #3.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2392882,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

          I think the Clintons believe they should be given more respect than the average losing candidate. It's as simple as that. It's not just about Obama... it's about what they believe is their status in the party. As one Bill person loves to put, "I don't understand why Democrats are so dismissive of the only two-term Democratic president of the last 50 years."

          So I think it's one of these situations where no matter what Obama does, it won't seem to be enough. Honestly, Jimmy Carter never felt like the Clintons treated him with the respect he believed he was deserved. I really think this is a "president" thing that only 43 people truly understand.

          {"commentId":2392882,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
          • 3 votes
          #3.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:48 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2393251,"authorDomain":"bdoern"}

          I think the following things also play into the Clintons' hurt feelings and lack of total support for Obama (especially Bill's):

          -That the primary election was so close with Hillary getting the same or more raw vote counts (depending on how you count) and that Hillary would have won if (a) there had been ligitimate elections in Florida & Michigan, (b) if all states had primaries instead of caucuses, (c) if the Dems had a winner-take-all format like Republicans, or (d) if the superdelegates had not bought into the media's constant drumbeat that they "couldn't/shouldn't overturn the will of the voters" and had instead paid attention to the poll numbers in the key battleground states that Hillary would win but Obama might not.

          -They don't think that Obama has "paid his dues" in the party (as Hillary has) and therefore he jumped the gun (and stepped on some toes) by running for president in '08.

          -That Obama lumped the 8-yrs of Clinton's presidency into the "Washington's broken" theme during the primary, and got people to believe that you couldn't "turn the page" by voting for anyone with the last name of Clinton (i.e. which didn't you like, the peace or the prosperity?).

          {"commentId":2393251,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"bdoern"}
          • 2 votes
          #3.4 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:22 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2398884,"authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}

          ... and if a frog had wings it would hit its a$$ while hoping.

          {"commentId":2398884,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}
          • 1 vote
          #3.5 - Fri Aug 8, 2008 8:41 AM EDT
          Reply
          {"commentId":2380627,"authorDomain":"Str8UpNoChaser"}

          Chuck,

          It disturbs me that some media types feel that they should not call a lie a lie. They question whether or not it is their job to point out lies to the American people, or simply let them stand unchallenged.

          My question is, Do you think that it is the media's responsibility to point out lies during a campaign and if not the media, then who is responsible for fact checking?

          {"commentId":2380627,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Str8UpNoChaser"}
          • 8 votes
          Reply#4 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 12:50 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2391599,"authorDomain":"rpi2007"}

          Chuch and Str8UpNoChaser,

          This is the best question I have ever read here! I don't think anyone in any media will ever answer it.

          So, Chuck, prove me wrong and answer it. Do you think the media should be responsible for fact checking or any truth at all in reporting? Or should the media just pass on info fed to it.

          It seems the media has gotten lazy. Journalism that can be trusted has been replaced with the attempt to manipulation of the masses.

          Has anyone read the report from Center for Media and Public Affairs. It is entitled 'MEDIA BASH BARACK (NOT A TYPO)' ? Google it.

          {"commentId":2391599,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"rpi2007"}
          • 1 vote
          #4.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 1:46 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2392252,"authorDomain":"invisible-elephant"}

          This. I hate it when the media lets campaign spokesmen and -women on and don't question anything they say. Nancy Pfotenhauer, a McCain spokeswoman, was running her gab to David Shuster and spewing all kids of BS about Obama and he didn't even CHALLENGE her. That's why I love Andrea Mitchell. She TORE through Carly Fiorina and Rick Davis. It's time these Republicans learn to tell the damn truth.

          {"commentId":2392252,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"invisible-elephant"}
          • 3 votes
          #4.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 2:47 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2392902,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

          Absolutely, the media should point out a lie, period. The media should be searching for truth and fairness... As I always say internally, you can't "balance" the truth... so of course the media should point out lies. The trouble we all get in though is when you can't prove a truth or a falsehood when the interpretations are what reign supreme. And then we are stuck parsing the interpretations of the truth, rather than having all the facts at hand... Many political arguments are subjective.

          {"commentId":2392902,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
          • 4 votes
          #4.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
          {"commentId":2437804,"authorDomain":"bentarver"}

          I couldn't agree more...the truth should be the rule. Take the Georgia story, let's support Georgia, even though they started the conflict with Russia. McCain wants to speak for "all of us", but let me say he doesn't speak for me, therefore, he doesn't speak for all Americans, just his lobbists!

          {"commentId":2437804,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"bentarver"}
            #4.4 - Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":2380654,"authorDomain":"TonyCSATX"}

            Hi Chuck.

            I want to talk about identity politics a moment. I think both Obama and Hillary brought out new "identity" voters, blacks for Obama and women for Hillary, that did not care about issues or policy or party, they were voting their race or gender. Now that Hillary has lost and probably won't be on the ticket, I think those new Hillary supporters will just not vote at all. So I guess I am saying Obama hasn't lost anything if those gender voters account for most of the Hillary supporters that say they won't vote for him, because they were never going to vote in the first place. I'm not saying "those grapes were probably sour anyway", I just think the fact that some primary voters claim they won't vote for Obama because he mistreated Hillary is overblown. I never saw any disrespect, I think she just mismanaged her campaign and lost. What do you think?

            {"commentId":2380654,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"TonyCSATX"}
            • 7 votes
            Reply#5 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2386429,"authorDomain":"Jen56"}

            Hi Tony C - I think you may be correct in that many new "identity" voters are based on race and gender. I think that the dissatisfaction on the Hillary supporter front is being aimed at Obama, who, as far as I know, never said anything inappropriate about Hillary.

            The sexism complaints that she and her supporters have are legitimate, but they should be aimed at specific members of the media - this is the source. To blame this on Obama, the person who would most understand how unfair it is to make comments based on what a person is, rather than his or her policy beliefs, is ridiculous.

            And I think it is telling that many younger women are supporting Obama - they are not understanding why the older women are so vehemently against Obama. It appears that the generational divide is hitting in the feminist movement as well as the general society.

            True feminists could never vote for McCain, so those women who are saying they supported Hillary but will now support McCain were likely some of those "identity" voters.

            {"commentId":2386429,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Jen56"}
            • 2 votes
            #5.1 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 10:59 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2392919,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

            I think this entire feud between the two camps is a bit overblown. While I think there are truly bitter feelings among the campaigns; a large contingent of Clinton's supporters are already in Obama's camp; if they weren't, he'd be losing and losing by quite a bit.

            {"commentId":2392919,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
            • 3 votes
            #5.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:51 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2393392,"authorDomain":"bdoern"}

            As one of the avid Hillary supporters, I will vote for Obama, but without enthusiasm. There are two things I can't forgive him for: the first was not agreeing to holding new primary elections in Florida and Michigan so those millions of voters could participate in the process (because he knew he would lose and it might cost him the election), and the second was opting out of public financing for the general election after saying he would take it. To me these things go directly against his main rhetoric of bringing change to Washington and reveal him as the "anything to win" politician that he is. Let's face it, all he has is his rhetoric, since he has extremely limited experience governing.

            {"commentId":2393392,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"bdoern"}
            • 1 vote
            #5.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":2380758,"authorDomain":"Str8UpNoChaser"}

            One more Chuck.

            Do you feel that the media has shirked its responsibility to thoroughly vet both candidates? It seems to me that whenever an obvious lie or hypocrisy is attributable to the McCain campaign, the press goes out of its way to insist that "there is nothing to see here". They constantly state that "we know McCain" or "We know what McCain meant". However, when it comes to Senator Obama, there is no attempt to put things in context or give him the same benefit of the doubt. And let's not forget that "we don't know who Obama is". I guess that I feel like the press reports on the "narrative" that the McCain campaign wants to create about Senator Obama instead of the substance of the issues.

            For example, the McCain campaign likes to refer to Senator Obama as elitist. Why no reporting on the fact that the McCain's own 9 houses? Why no attempt to refute obvious distortions?

            By the same token, the over-reporting on Senator Obama is so bad that I know what brand of protein bars he likes to eat. Disparity?

            {"commentId":2380758,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Str8UpNoChaser"}
            • 6 votes
            Reply#6 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2385691,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

            I completely agree with your post. I think it is hilarious that the guy who owns 9 houses, has his own private jet(which his wife said is the only way to get around AZ LOL), and wears $600 shoes, is calling the guy who just paid off the rest of his student loans a few years ago, the elitist. HELLO, POT MEET KETTLE!!!

            {"commentId":2385691,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
            • 8 votes
            #6.1 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 9:06 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2391196,"authorDomain":"lynne53"}

            I completely agree with you! What I have learned (from the Clintons) is that if you say a thing long enough, it somehow becomes relevant, ie, "we really don't know who Obama is" what else exactly is there to know? He has been followed from Kindergarten until his 47th birthday! Are they really saying, "he hasn't really been living/politicking/in Washington long enough?"

            {"commentId":2391196,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lynne53"}
            • 1 vote
            #6.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 1:07 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2392346,"authorDomain":"rpi2007"}

            Str8UpNoChaser,

            I agree! It seems most media is trying to be Fixed News Channel.

            What about the vetting of the possible first ladies?

            Everyone has heard of Michelle being really proud of her country for the first time and how that would reflect on her as first lady. We have been informed of her upbringing, where she went to school and the fact she had a student loan she paid off. She apparently has worked to get where she is. Elitist?

            Who paid for Cindy's education? Was she involved in the break up of John's first marriage. Haven't heard anything about Cindy stealing drugs from her own charity to feed her drug habit. And certainly nothing about how she wasn't even arrested for it. Why? Who kept her out of the justice system? Do you think the media would have told us about it, if it had been the deeds of Michelle?

            Just like Limbaugh, Cindy got just as much justice as she could afford to pay for. Who is the elitist again?

            Is the media just being fair and balanced?

            {"commentId":2392346,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"rpi2007"}
            • 2 votes
            #6.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2392981,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

            I assume that however I answer this question, it won't be satisfactory; I think we've done a poor job of vetting BOTH candidates. Think about this issue: there is a missing 20 years of biography of both candidates that RARELY gets reported on. For Obama, it's approx. 1984-2004; for McCain it's 1978-1998. So until we thoroughly do some ticktock on those years, I'll believe we haven't vetted either candidate well enough just yet.

            {"commentId":2392981,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
            • 8 votes
            #6.4 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":2380799,"authorDomain":"rfunk"}

            Hi Chuck,

            I'm just wondering has a party ever won the White House if they were not fully united? It just seems like Bill Clinton is still not fully on board yet. So, I'm wondering what the down side is if they democrats are not fully united in November?

            {"commentId":2380799,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"rfunk"}
            • 5 votes
            Reply#7 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2412620,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

            Well, McCain never really seemed on board with Bush in 2000; Democrats were not THAT united around Clinton in '92; But it is rare.

            {"commentId":2412620,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
            • 2 votes
            #7.1 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:30 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":2381033,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

            Hey Chuck,
            You mentioned last time that McCain would probably pick a surprise candidate. Is Eric Cantor on that list (see this article on him from the WSJ)? Or is he just trying to spread his name for 2012/2016? What are the chances of him getting on board the Big Mac Machine? And is he a good pick?

            {"commentId":2381033,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
            • 6 votes
            Reply#8 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 1:22 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2392994,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

            This Cantor stuff is a total smokescreen. This is about allowing Cantor to raise his profile as he could be the next House GOP leader if John Boehner either retires or is ousted by the GOP caucus. But I do believe that the current C.W. of Romney or Pawlenty is probably going to end up incorrect. I think McCain's more likely to be looking for a semi-surprise choice, even if that surprise is pro-choicer Tom Ridge.

            {"commentId":2392994,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
            • 4 votes
            #8.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:59 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2393446,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

            OK, that's what I figured.

            {"commentId":2393446,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
            • 3 votes
            #8.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:41 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":2381447,"authorDomain":"ramona918"}

            Hi Chuck - great to see you on the news. That should be an ongoing gig for you. Great job!

            How do you think the news that Iraq is banking billions of dollars plays (or does it) for both McCain and Obama? Do either candidate benefit from taking this on?

            Thanks!

            {"commentId":2381447,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"ramona918"}
            • 9 votes
            Reply#9 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 1:52 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2393024,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

            I cannot believe that Obama did jump on that news a bit more... or McCain, actually. Both of them simply put out releases... This is BIG news; this is exactly what some had promised regarding Iraq's ability to pay the U.S. back for some of the costs of the war.

            {"commentId":2393024,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
            • 5 votes
            #9.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:03 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":2381911,"authorDomain":"sudesh-kudchadkar"}

            Hey Chuck,

            Many of the Media News personality (not you) are always commenting on why Obama hasn't pulled away yet it seems eerily similar to the 1980 election when things were so bad in the country but Reagan didn't pull away till after there only debate 1 week before the election.

            It seems though that Obama does seem to have a consistent 45-49% of the electorate while McCain has 40-44% with about 10% undecided. I think due to the overblown coverage of this campaign (more then previous elections) that polls are going to hold steady until the debates. I even think the VP picks/conventions are only going to yield small bumps in polls either way...I think once the Debates come then those undecided and those just wanting to go for Obama but not sure will make up their minds and you will see polls go one way or another.

            Also..I thought that Obama may surprise everyone by picking Hillary Clinton as his VP until Bill Clinton opened his mouth again. Do you think that Obama can point his finder that the Bill Clinton interview and say that is the reason we did not pick Hillary. I think she would of been #1 pick if it wasn't for Bill.

            Right now who r ur top three..? Bayh, Kaine, Biden...any surprise pick u see?

            {"commentId":2381911,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"sudesh-kudchadkar"}
            • 1 vote
            Reply#10 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 2:24 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2385790,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

            Here is my two cents, not that you asked or anything. I've got two sleepers for each side.

            DEMOCRATS - STRICKLAND(GOV OH) RICHARDSON(GOV NM)

            REPUBLICANS - JINDAHL(GOV LA) LINDSEY GRAHM(SC)

            IN MY OPINION THE VEEP USUALLY GOES TO SOMEONE THAT NOBODY IS REALLY TALKING ABOUT.

            ITS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE MOST OBVIOUS CHOICE(LIKE ROMNEY) OR SOMEONE COMPLETELY OUT OF LEFT FIELD.

            {"commentId":2385790,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
            • 1 vote
            #10.1 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 9:19 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2398929,"authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}

            Jindahl will never be the pick. He is out of the closet.

            {"commentId":2398929,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}
              #10.2 - Fri Aug 8, 2008 8:49 AM EDT
              {"commentId":2412628,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

              I think the fact McCain can't cross 45% is a bigger problem than Obama's ability to cross 50%. And it is something I continue to bring up.

              {"commentId":2412628,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
              • 2 votes
              #10.3 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:31 PM EDT
              Reply
              {"commentId":2382022,"authorDomain":"MIgal"}

              Hi Chuck, An enormous amount of time is spent analyzing campaign ads. Why do the network and cable media programs show campaign commercials so much?

              {"commentId":2382022,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"MIgal"}
              • 6 votes
              Reply#11 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 2:32 PM EDT
              {"commentId":2393037,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

              I actually think we don't do enough on the TV ad front... we show them, but we don't truly fact-check them as we should. I think we'll get better as the campaign wears on but it's something we ought to improve on.

              {"commentId":2393037,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
              • 5 votes
              #11.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
              {"commentId":2398935,"authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}

              One thing that is never talked about during about the Paris/Britney ad is that McCain claims Obama plans to raise taxes on electricity. According to Politifact they can find no mention of that anywhere. It is an outright lie, but it is the ad's big closing line.

              {"commentId":2398935,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}
                #11.2 - Fri Aug 8, 2008 8:51 AM EDT
                Reply
                {"commentId":2382188,"authorDomain":"hans3n9"}

                Chuck,

                Do you see an Obama presidency fighting a democratic congress, or more so going along with it, at least in the first few months. And likewise, do you see a McCain presidency going along with congress for the first few months to build political "street cred"? Which scenario do you feel is more likely for each candidate's presidency?

                - Matt, 20, San Diego

                {"commentId":2382188,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"hans3n9"}
                • 6 votes
                Reply#12 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
                {"commentId":2393069,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                I think there will be more compatibility between a President Obama and the Dem Congress than when Bill Clinton came to power in 1993. My guess is that the first real conflict between the Dem Congress and Obama will come from the issue of trade. As for McCain, I assume there will be simultaneous challenges and opportunities. I think he'll go along with some things early on but then end up being sent some bills he'll have no choice but to veto.

                {"commentId":2393069,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                • 3 votes
                #12.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:07 PM EDT
                Reply
                {"commentId":2382233,"authorDomain":"hans3n9"}

                Chuck,

                I think I speak for many people who want to know one of the most thought about questions ever to hit newsvine: What are you going to do after November rolls around? Turn that vacation home into your new residence, maybe finally settle down? I have to believe that your workload gets cut in half after November. Where will your focus be after we have a new president? Analyzing and hypothesizing cabinet choices?

                - Matt, 20, San Diego

                {"commentId":2382233,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"hans3n9"}
                • 8 votes
                Reply#13 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
                {"commentId":2393090,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                I think this job really won't slow down after November. I think keeping track with how Washington governs is going to be a BIG job for many of us here in the DC buro. There are going to be a lot of new faces both in a new admin (either Obama or McCain) and in the new Congress. There will be new governing coalitions that will form in the Senate and House which will keep us very busy. Interest in how Washington is going to deal with the many challenges that are facing this country is going to be a story that all of us are going to want to be a part of.

                {"commentId":2393090,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                • 3 votes
                #13.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:09 PM EDT
                {"commentId":2393134,"authorDomain":"Jen56"}

                hey Chuck -
                wil MSNBC.com need more staff?

                {"commentId":2393134,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Jen56"}
                • 1 vote
                #13.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:13 PM EDT
                {"commentId":2393192,"authorDomain":"alyx1959"}

                Chuck, do you really think the McCain will have ALL NEW FACES....I think some Bushies will be tucked in there neatly into the folds!!!!! ON PURPOSE...lol wink!

                {"commentId":2393192,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"alyx1959"}
                  #13.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
                  Reply
                  {"commentId":2382241,"authorDomain":"CliffDog"}

                  Chuck, first off let me thank you for alerting new members to our Code of Honor here at Newsvine. It is something we take seriously.

                  Secondly, my question relates to the type of campaigns we're seeing from both men. Both candidates promised different campaigns - no mudslinging and taking the high road. But it seems to me that as the campaign progresses we're gradually being pulled down into the mud. Is that just my perception or do others see that as well? And if so, is that just the inevitable direction that the campaigns must go because (a) they need to refute a negative statement that was raised by the opposing campaign, (b) they need to refute a negative statement that was raised by a third party/media outlet, (c) they need to change the focus of attention because they are behind in the polls?

                  {"commentId":2382241,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"CliffDog"}
                  • 3 votes
                  Reply#14 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
                  {"commentId":2390878,"authorDomain":"gtrkay"}

                  I don't really see how the Obama campaign is going negative. It is perfectly legitimate to point out policy differences and articulate why you think the other party is wrong. It is a completely different thing to attack a candidate's character and integrity, which is exactly what McCain has been doing.

                  I'm curious how you see Obama participating in this mudslinging (just in case I am blinded by my support of the candidate).

                  {"commentId":2390878,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"gtrkay"}
                  • 1 vote
                  #14.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
                  {"commentId":2392448,"authorDomain":"lynne53"}

                  Gretchen, I asked the same question. Isn't it fair to defend yourself by responding without ads being called "negative counter-attacks?"

                  {"commentId":2392448,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lynne53"}
                    #14.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:04 PM EDT
                    {"commentId":2412648,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                    Look, I'm disappointed in both campaigns; I really thought these two men would do a bunch of town halls; would try and do things differently. But what happens is that ambition takes over; both don't want to do anything that puts their chances of being president at jeopardy and doing something like joint town halls is too different and apparently too risky.

                    {"commentId":2412648,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                    • 3 votes
                    #14.3 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:34 PM EDT
                    Reply
                    {"commentId":2382371,"authorDomain":"knh"}

                    Hi Chuck,

                    John McCain seems to want lots of Town Hall meetings versus debates and Obama is resisting. That's fine, he should set his own schedule. But to me, listening to them both, McCain sounds tired and resentful that this upstart can upstage him and Obama is pure energy. McCain speaks of his substance then makes verbal gaffes and spouts generalities, always preceded by "my friends."

                    I think that once the two of them share a stage it will be all over. Only those who, as Obama put it, seem proud of being ignorant will vote for McCain.

                    Of course, poiltically, the longer Obama waits, the better. Can't peak too soon. Right?

                    PS-I absolutely love your maps. If math were taught in schools using your methods of explanation - using a race between, say, HS Musical and Hannah M, we would churn out so many mathematicians no one could touch us in that field.

                    {"commentId":2382371,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"knh"}
                      Reply#15 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 2:59 PM EDT
                      {"commentId":2382512,"authorDomain":"hlpeterson-99"}

                      Hi Chuck,

                      Will the new voter turnout in the youth and African-American groups offset the racist vote? Do you think that if Barack Obama were "Barry O'Brien" and looked like an older version of you (without the goatee...when was the last time we had a President with facial hair? Do we have anyone in congress with facial hair?) he would be ahead by double digits?

                      Thanks again for taking questions. And let me join the chorus in saying nice job anchoring the hour.

                      {"commentId":2382512,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"hlpeterson-99"}
                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#16 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 3:10 PM EDT
                      {"commentId":2412654,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                      I think the undecided vote is where some of the "I won't vote for Obama" voters are hanging out; I don't think they are lying to pollsters by saying they are currently for Obama. I do think there will be a HUGE spike in African-American turnout; the jury's still out on youth turnout.

                      As for facial hair... The only prominent pol with facial hair is NJ Gov. Jon Corzine. We haven't had a president with facial hair since Taft.

                      {"commentId":2412654,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                      • 2 votes
                      #16.1 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
                      {"commentId":2413268,"authorDomain":"Jen56"}

                      Chuck -
                      Perhaps how that everyone has seen how you are starting a new trend in political analysis, the politicians will take heed! It's now chic to have facial hair - but only if you look as good as Chuck!

                      : )

                      {"commentId":2413268,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Jen56"}
                      • 1 vote
                      #16.2 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 10:43 PM EDT
                      Reply
                      {"commentId":2382808,"authorDomain":"TonyCSATX"}

                      I noticed on a Hardball clip that Obama explicitly said the McCain campaign is lying about his economic policy, and (I think he said) "takes pride in being ignorant", in reference to their mocking of his proper tire pressure comment about reducing gasoline consumption.

                      We usually don't hear politicians calling each other liars. I am an Obama fan and think it is waranted, but do you think this is an unusual choice of words for a candidate to use about his opponent?

                      {"commentId":2382808,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"TonyCSATX"}
                      • 5 votes
                      Reply#17 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 3:34 PM EDT
                      {"commentId":2392411,"authorDomain":"lynne53"}

                      Tony C. SA TX, how does this phrase catches you as you attempt to define political correctness:
                      "Sen. Obama is more interested in winning an election than winning a war"
                      I was appalled at the assertion that a Presidential candidate cares more about a political career than about the lives of fellow Americans, speaking of Americans, Sen. Obama has been accused of not being patriotic, not being an American. In my mind, that is a prerequisite for running for the office.

                      I say, politicians and others alike should call it as it is, enough with political correctness. No one is being held to a standard but the "Other" guy; we know what "other" means -- not like what "is-is", more overt than that.

                      {"commentId":2392411,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lynne53"}
                        #17.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:01 PM EDT
                        {"commentId":2393135,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                        I think McCain and Obama are developing a personal dislike for each other that many might believe is unhealthy. They are starting to take many things more personally than either of them used to. I wonder if the first debate is going to be VERY contentious.

                        {"commentId":2393135,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                        • 8 votes
                        #17.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:13 PM EDT
                        {"commentId":2398973,"authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}

                        The McCain camp does lie in every commercial and in every town hall so I don't think it is out of bounds for Obama to point that out. Facts are stubborn things if someone takes the time to check them. McCain even lies about what he said to different audiences. Whenever I listen to a McCain surrogate on POTUS (an XM channel covering the campaign) the hosts never correct even the most blatant lies. As President Bush famously said, you have to repeat yourself over and over so the propaganda can sink in.

                        Certainly the Obama camp has not been 100% factually correct, but they are not nearly as outright lies as team McCain.

                        {"commentId":2398973,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}
                          #17.3 - Fri Aug 8, 2008 8:56 AM EDT
                          Reply
                          {"commentId":2382936,"authorDomain":"mightyblogger"}

                          Hi Chuck and staffers

                          I'm of the opinion the Senator Obama has not fully engaged in the presidential race just yet. I think he and his campaign staff are just biding time until after the convention. I think they are trying not to give McCain's campaign anything to work with until then.

                          Any insight?

                          {"commentId":2382936,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"mightyblogger"}
                          • 7 votes
                          Reply#18 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 3:46 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2386863,"authorDomain":"gbixler"}

                          PNB,

                          I don't know if we're right or not, but I said much the same thing on another thread yesterday. A Viner had mentioned that Obama needed to hit back on some of the McCain attacks in a more aggressive and timely manner, and I mentioned that I agreed, but added the thought that we'd see more of that behavior post convention.

                          My suspicion is that he will use the VP nominee to do most of the direct responses, freeing him to continue his focus on positive messaging and issue contrasting.

                          {"commentId":2386863,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"gbixler"}
                          • 5 votes
                          #18.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 12:14 AM EDT
                          {"commentId":2388623,"authorDomain":"olderisbetter"}

                          I think you're probably right. The American public's memory span is pretty short and they will forget lots of what is going on this summer (if they are even listening!).

                          I predict Obama pulls out the big guns and does a full court press later this fall.

                          {"commentId":2388623,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"olderisbetter"}
                          • 3 votes
                          #18.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 9:04 AM EDT
                          {"commentId":2390943,"authorDomain":"gtrkay"}

                          I think you are right and the Obama campaign is holding back. Think about all the things that could be used to attack Obama - Rev. Wright, flag pins, secret Muslim, flip flop, etc. Because of the intensive use of these attacks both in the primary and early general election campaign they kind of feel like old news, boring, and used up (especially to the media which enjoys a new story/angle).

                          Obama hasn't really attacked McCain at all, so when the harsher critiques come in the Fall, when more people are paying, they may get more play because they aren't old hat.

                          That's my theory, for what it's worth.

                          {"commentId":2390943,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"gtrkay"}
                          • 1 vote
                          #18.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2393145,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                          Interesting thesis... I think the Obama campaign is fully engaged in what they need to do for the general but they may be pulling some punches when it comes to McCain. Or they may be having an internal debate as to just how hard they should hit McCain. This is the same issue Obama ran into with Clinton in the fall of '07.

                          {"commentId":2393145,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                          • 5 votes
                          #18.4 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:14 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2414406,"authorDomain":"phoenixrising1964"}
                          sonyak823Deleted
                          Reply
                          {"commentId":2383384,"authorDomain":"mjs6288"}

                          Hi Chuck,

                          Knowing what a political and Electoral Map expert you are, I was curious to know which areas of Ohio are the McCain strongholds, the Obama strongholds, and the toss-up areas that will tip the outcome of the state's 20 electoral votes one way or another.

                          p.s. I'd really like to see you moderate a debate between Billo and Olbermann with you sitting in the center, Olbermann way to your left, and O'Reilly way to your right. That would be awesome television. Would that be possible?

                          {"commentId":2383384,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"mjs6288"}
                          • 4 votes
                          Reply#19 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2412668,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                          I would love to moderate that debate! As for Ohio.. best way to describe the McCain strongholds is to draw a "U" from Toledo to Youngstown (with a small gap in Cincy). The best swing area in the state is Dayton; How Dayton goes as goes Ohio, usually. It's been a swing area for nearly 40 years.

                          {"commentId":2412668,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                          • 2 votes
                          #19.1 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:38 PM EDT
                          Reply
                          {"commentId":2383720,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

                          Hey Chuck T,

                          Before I get to my question, I just wanted to give you kudos on your assessment of the Obama and Bill Clinton saga. After seeing the interview with Bill this week, you were clearly right about how salty he is. My conspiracy theory went right out the window. So, once again Chucky T right on the money. Now to my questions.

                          I was curious about your opinion on who actually played the "race card" last week between Obama and McCain. It seemed to me that it was the McCain camp who played the "race card". Like Sen. Obama said nobody at any of his rallies all day long took offense to his comment, and it didnt become a huge story until the McCain camp seized on it, and pounded it home. Plus if you look at motives, Obama definitely doesnt benefit from talking about race, but McCain probably does. So, I just wanted to know what you thought about this whole situation, and who do you think really played the "race card", if anyone. Thanks again Chuck!

                          {"commentId":2383720,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
                          • 4 votes
                          Reply#20 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 4:55 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2396341,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

                          Chuck,

                          I know you bleed Dodger blue, so I had a question for you. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF MANNY ON THE DODGERS. IM A HUGE REDSOX FAN SO I WAS A LITTLE BUMMED AT FIRST, BUT WHEN I HEARD AT LEAST CHUCK T WOULD GET TO CHEER FOR HIM, I FELT A LITTLE BETTER. GO SOX!

                          {"commentId":2396341,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
                          • 1 vote
                          #20.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 10:01 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2412703,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                          I look at the race card debate as I would the game of bridge; I think Obama attempted to sluff the race card, while McCain "trumped" the race card. The avg. voter did not see Obama doing it while no one could miss what McCain's campaign did.

                          As for the Dodger question; I was anti-Manny but now, well, he may turn out to be the perfect L.A. ballplayer... he gets to be anonymous in the city that allows athletes to blend in if they want to. My fear is that Manny does so well this year that the McCourts decide to overpay to keep him for the next four years as we watch him decline. The McCourts are wannabe Bostonians and not true Dodgers; maybe that'll change with a championship but right now it's the way I feel.

                          {"commentId":2412703,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                          • 1 vote
                          #20.2 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:46 PM EDT
                          Reply
                          {"commentId":2383815,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

                          Hi Chuck,

                          I have one more question for you. I know you are not a big fan of some of the polls right now(Gallop Daily Tracking), but I was curious about something. Do these polls, or any polls for that matter, take into account voter turnout. I know mostly people with land lines are the ones who get polled. So, that leaves out the younger crowd who only has cell phones, but do any polls take into account the boost in voter registration or just the number of people that are expected to turn out this year. For example, in most polls Obama has about a 6% lead 47%-41%. So, could Obama actually be up a little more right now, do to the fact of who is actually getting polled right now, and when you take into account the massive numbers of people that are probably going to the polls this November. Thanks again Chuck.

                          {"commentId":2383815,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
                          • 1 vote
                          Reply#21 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 5:05 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2386513,"authorDomain":"Jen56"}

                          I recently got a call from one of the major polling names, and based on what I heard, I think that the results could be majorly skewed by the wording of the questions, even when it is a legitimate and well-respected poller.

                          Some of the questions required yes or no answers, and I had to think really hard, as I thought that my answer was more nuanced than the choices available to me. (typical Democrat, right?) I had to answer "I don't know" on some questions, simply because there was no other option.

                          This morning, I laughed my head off because our local paper reported two poll results in the same article - one poll result said Obama is leading nationwide, and the other poll said, OMG, Obama has dropped in every single one of the groups that has been supporting him previously! OK, this is ridiculous, these polls cannot both be right, so now I'm thinking that it's hard to take ANY poll seriously.

                          I am waiting for someone to take a poll to find out if anyone really believes any poll that disagrees with their own positions.

                          Chuck - can you give us any hope as to the validity of any of these polls?

                          {"commentId":2386513,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"Jen56"}
                          • 3 votes
                          #21.1 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 11:12 PM EDT
                          {"commentId":2392307,"authorDomain":"lynne53"}

                          Jen, I am laughing my head off now! I think we just need to wait for the polls of polls -- the real election!

                          {"commentId":2392307,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lynne53"}
                            #21.2 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 2:52 PM EDT
                            {"commentId":2392575,"authorDomain":"mjs6288"}

                            We know the NBC Wall Street Journal poll is good. I think the ABC/Washington Post poll is pretty solid. I've never heard what Chuck thinks of Rasmussen, but I think Rasmussen's polls are lousy and skew heavily Republican in most circumstances. To be fair, some polls skew heavily Democratic.

                            {"commentId":2392575,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"mjs6288"}
                              #21.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:16 PM EDT
                              {"commentId":2412719,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                              A few guidelines to polls right now:

                              1) pay no attention to polls that claim they are of "likely voters"; there are WAY too many people who are going to vote who won't make it through a current likely voter screen. I'm not going to look at polls of likely voters until after the debates (which end in Mid-October).

                              2) be careful of any pollster who polls only one day; I have lots of problems with Rasmussen's methodology but the biggest problem I have is the fact his state polls are one day deals. It's among approx. 58 problems I have with his "polling."

                              3) be careful of any poll which shows a massive swing between polls. Nothing's happened to move numbers more than a couple of points. The conventions and the debates are the next major events which can move numbers a lot.

                              {"commentId":2412719,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                              • 2 votes
                              #21.4 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:50 PM EDT
                              {"commentId":2413237,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

                              Thanks for the info Chuck. There is a reason why they call you the best in the business.

                              {"commentId":2413237,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
                                #21.5 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 10:39 PM EDT
                                Reply
                                {"commentId":2383861,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

                                Ohio. McCain or Obama?

                                {"commentId":2383861,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
                                • 6 votes
                                Reply#22 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 5:11 PM EDT
                                {"commentId":2393157,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                                Well, I just made a bet with someone I really respect that says, Obama can't win without Ohio... He believes Obama can win without Ohio...

                                Right now, I think it's a coin flip with a pinky fingernail on the scale for Obama since he's ahead nationally.

                                {"commentId":2393157,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                                • 3 votes
                                #22.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
                                {"commentId":2398977,"authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}

                                It will depend on if everyone is allowed to vote.

                                {"commentId":2398977,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tappymcwidestance"}
                                  #22.2 - Fri Aug 8, 2008 8:57 AM EDT
                                  Reply
                                  {"commentId":2384682,"authorDomain":"LenoreK"}

                                  Hi Chuck. Enjoyed your show yesterday (especially your talk with Frank Newport!). Also, the redesigned Politics page with the Maps & Info section is really impressive, you & your Web designers did a great job.

                                  On Hardball Monday, Andrea said Sen. McCain is inside a bubble and is being handled by his advisers, and Roger Simon agreed, saying McCain may have been misled about what Obama said or didn't say (during last week's "race card" back-and-forth). If true, should this be of some concern to voters, if McCain's advisers are misleading him & if he is somehow totally unaware of this?

                                  {"commentId":2384682,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"LenoreK"}
                                  • 8 votes
                                  Reply#23 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 6:50 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2393176,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                                  Well, it's a different McCain this campaign than the one we were used to last fall and in '00. He's just doing fewer unscripted moments. So in our view, it appears he's being kept in a bubble more than he was; The advice probably has something to do with keeping the campaign on message.

                                  {"commentId":2393176,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                                  • 1 vote
                                  #23.1 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
                                  Reply
                                  {"commentId":2384771,"authorDomain":"lele"}

                                  Hi Chuck.

                                  I am curious to get an insider's perspective on what kind of fallout occurs when the press actually mis-quotes or generates their own take on a political story in order to 'create a new narrative'. Is it the kind of thing that just goes with the territory, or are careers actually affected? I am specifically thinking of the Dana Milbank column that blew open the doors on the Obama arrogance stories.

                                  {"commentId":2384771,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lele"}
                                  • 13 votes
                                  Reply#24 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 7:04 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2385641,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

                                  Very good question. I am also wondering do you know what happened to Dana Milbank. I know that the quote he used for his article was taking completely out of context, but im not sure what ever happened to him because of this. Also, I heard he isnt on going to be on MSNBC anymore. Do you have any idea why?

                                  {"commentId":2385641,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
                                  • 4 votes
                                  #24.1 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 8:59 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2386209,"authorDomain":"lele"}

                                  tatro - this should bring you up to speed on the situation.

                                  {"commentId":2386209,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"lele"}
                                  • 1 vote
                                  #24.2 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 10:23 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2392536,"authorDomain":"mjs6288"}

                                  Milbank ditched MSNBC and went to CNN and is some sort of political contributor. Keith really didn't like that piece Milbank wrote in the Washington Post a couple weeks ago about Obama being arrogant and his taking Obama's quote to the House Dems completely out of context.

                                  {"commentId":2392536,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"mjs6288"}
                                  • 3 votes
                                  #24.3 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 3:13 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2393203,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                                  I am not going to get into the Milbank story regarding Keith. I think both sides have said their peace. As for what happens when a news org. gets something wrong... they fix it... I know we did out best to put the entire Obama quote in context. But you can't blame that specific column for a narrative exploding. One item doth not make an exploding narrative.

                                  {"commentId":2393203,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                                  • 3 votes
                                  #24.4 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 4:19 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2394941,"authorDomain":"tatro101"}

                                  I agree totally with Chuck. But I do think it was pretty premature for Milbank to run with the quote, when he clearly didnt have the whole picture. Thank you Leah for the link.

                                  {"commentId":2394941,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"tatro101"}
                                  • 2 votes
                                  #24.5 - Thu Aug 7, 2008 7:09 PM EDT
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                                  {"commentId":2385667,"authorDomain":"redhot1957"}

                                  Why haven't the media taken responsibility for bringing up the race issue? The media is quickly to discuss Obama and McCain bringing it up. The issue of race has been repeatedly discussed by the networks everyday. The networks is the biggest blame of introducing race, We can see we have a black candidate. The media points out difference between in black and white demographics. Why whites wont vote for black man or vice vs. Also that he's a to educated black, but don't drink and bowl like a white person and much more. You even address thier wives in race terms. Maybe if Michelle talks about her roots that may get them votes. Like Pat Buchanan who used the Phrase hot-dog to describe Obama. like Joe Scarborough asked one of the interviewer's to give him a terrorist fist bump or he's uppity. Isn't it true by referring to people race you are inviting a discussion for race everyday? Why not just count the votes and leave race out of it. Let the people make thier own judgement.

                                  {"commentId":2385667,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"redhot1957"}
                                  • 3 votes
                                  Reply#25 - Wed Aug 6, 2008 9:03 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2412741,"authorDomain":"chucktodd"}

                                  I can't deny that the media gets way too interested in race. It's catnip for us. It's both the right and wrong thing for us to do. The fact is, race is a big deal in this election. We have to follow the issue. But we need to be careful as to not LOOK for a way to cover race when another issue should be covered instead. Know that we have very serious debates internally on this before we let the coverage go wild. We know how sensitive this topic is and we want to do it right; We may not always get it right but we are trying.

                                  {"commentId":2412741,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"chucktodd"}
                                  • 1 vote
                                  #25.1 - Sat Aug 9, 2008 8:55 PM EDT
                                  {"commentId":2413693,"authorDomain":"redhot1957"}

                                  Thank!, for trying Can the the network advisers sit down ,and have a discussion on what questions to ask that are not racially bias? The poll results in general are related to whats discussed, in the media and Internet discussion. If you just reported on the issues that affect us and not the racial effect it would be nice. Maybe its something to think about in the next for years , You never know it may be an American Cuban or Asian American running.

                                  {"commentId":2413693,"threadId":"326858","contentId":"1725449","authorDomain":"redhot1957"}
                                    #25.2 - Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:19 AM EDT
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