Newsvine Q&A: Chuck Todd on U.S. Politics

The following is a summary of the Questions and Answers, pulled from the Newsvine comment thread below.

Chuck: Is it okay for newsjunkies to start chattering about the Electoral College map for November? Still too soon?

:^{)>

I see four states Obama could carry that Kerry lost last cycle: CO, IA, NM and NV, which would win Obama the White House, along with two states where Obama could at least be competetive where Kerry was not: MT and VA.

Those are Obama's GOP target states. What are McCain's Dem target states? -jfxgills

It is not too soon; one could argue, it's EXACTLY what the undeclared Superdelegates are doing and that's examining the Electoral College breakouts between Obama and McCain and Clinton and McCain.

I think McCain's Dem targets are: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Had Clinton been his foe, I would have added Oregon to that list. With Obama as his foe, I think McCain will feel the most bullish on MI, PA and NH; The one I'd worry about most for Obama of those three is Michigan. 1) he hasn't spent a lot of time there; 2) he's given some unpopular speeches regarding the auto industry 3) the internal Dem strife in the state isn't helpful to putting together a full fledged campaign and Detroit's politics is a mess. As for NH, McCain is like a favorite son and he could over-perform there compared to other GOPers.

There was a time the McCain folks would have targeted NJ but they just don't have the money to do everything they can do to make it competitive.

Chuck: Great list. In fact, I've already got NH as going back over to the Repubs just because McCain is so well liked there by the GOP-leaning independents.

However, I think WI and MN are out of reach for McCain if Obama is the nominee. -Jfxgillis

Agree on Minnesota and Wisconsin simply because of Illinois proximity; Obama resonates in the Midwest.

I'm an Oregonian and I believe that we have the best way to vote by mail. This manifests itself in a variety of good ways. We don't have to go to the polling areas, we can take our time with our ballots in our hands and discuss the issues and candidates. Take our time to research any or all.

My query is why don't other states follow suit when we here often times about the long lines in other states, the time that they have to vote, which doesn't appear to be enough. As for the voter ID laws, who would need them if they mailed them to your home and just checked signatures.

As an aside could Clinton, considering that she keeps winning states and not by a little, really dictate whether she becomes the VP candidate?

After last weeks fun I sure am glad to see you back the very next week and I hope we can keep this up as it's a hell of allot of fun. -Forest

Well, Washington State is nearly 60% mail-in (absentee or whatever you want to call it in that state). Calif. is anywhere from 20-40% mail-in, depending on the election (called permanent absentees). I think there is a movement to loosen the absentee ballot rules in many states which in turn becomes de facto mail-in elections. It's likely the future, between a combination of early voting and absentee rules, election day will some day simply become the voting deadline day.

Chuck - It really looks like the end game. Do you see any way for Senator Clinton to legitimately stay in after the third?

As far as Senator Obama's electability, what are your thoughts on the implications of the 'Poblano Model' and voter registration efforts? -james andre

Clinton could "suspend" her candidacy but not release her delegates until the convention though that could make some Dems mad... but that's one thing she could do in order to both "drop out" but also be prepared if, well, some shoe drops.

Mr. Todd: In careful reading of Senator Obama's needs in regards to a running mate that would complement him and fill in real or perceived weaknesses it seems Senator Webb has to spring to mind near the top of most lists. He is of Scot-Irish ancestry, has a distinguished military career, and could reasonably hope to put Virginia in play. So a few questions for you:

1)Notwithstanding his MTP interview do think he is interested?

2)Do think his strengths on just raw background are matched by any real strengths as a VP campaigner?

3)What does VA law dictate regarding the naming of any senate replacement should Obama/Webb win?

Thanks so much for helping re-animate me in politics.
L. Thomason (retired Eng. Rochester, NY)

Webb strengths are the ones you've outlined; one additional strength with Webb: he just isn't a big fan of McCain and isn't afraid to challenge him on military issues; that's something Obama could use, some testerone.

Webb's weaknesses: he's on his third marriage (that's not been tried yet on a national ticket to my knowledge); he is an inexperienced campaigner and some of his writings, particularly on women in the military could end up hurting Obama even more with some of Clinton's women supporters.

As for VA's law... I believe it's a governor's appointment until the next even-numbered election year to fill out the term.

Will the RNC find issues other than Rev. Wright to talk about? They have played this record over and over and over it is warn out noise. Please tell them and the press no one wants to see some old picture of Ben Hidden that's worn out too. -Kirt Silvers

I actually believe the RNC believes "their" Rev. Wright will be Ahmadinejad who will say something crazy and then force Obama to have to justify his position about being willing to talk with him. Now, there's a debate as to what Obama agreed to when he pledged he'd be "willing," but it's something Obama has to answer for because of the way he answered that question initially.

What ever happened to electing a President by who gets the most votes, period. We lost Gore and now it looks like Clinton too. To bad, the country might be in better shape today. Thanks, and I love you on morning Joe.
-Pat-285361
newsflash, Clinton is lying about having the most votes. She excludes the Caucus states and throws in Florida and Michigan. But here is the funny math. If you toss in every state even FL and MI, Obama is still in the lead with the popular vote by 300,000 votes. -Behind My Screen

The popular vote is a metric that has many "right" answers this primary season. Just a reminder, had this been a popular vote contest, both campaigns would have run different races and certainly neither campaign would have wasted some $50 million in Iowa.

Any guesses as to whether the Obama or McCain will be the first to announce thier VP candidate? I suspect McCain will choose someone significantly younger (Rice?) , and Obama will choose someone older...Have you heard Chuck Hegel or Webb may have a shot? -ron o

You know, I've been curious about the VP timing... My guess is that McCain names his first because he'll need the fundraising and poll bost, perhaps in early July and then Obama will follow suit just before the Olympics. The games begin 8/8/08 and those two weeks become a media black hole, so there really is only approx. a six week window for the candidates to name their running mates if the assumption is they won't do it during or after the Olympics.

That said, McCain COULD try and name his VP during the week of the Dem convo as an attempt to steal some of the spotlight... I doubt that happens but it would be a gutsy move.

Who are your predictions for the McCain and Obama VP picks?

If Hillary wins either, does she still have a chance? -Andrew (aka Online Apps)
Now that the so-called horse race is just about over, it's time to start handicapping VP choice. I know you've spoken about this before, but since things change every day what's the latest buzz on who Obama might choose?.

PS - I'm good with James Webb, solid man, solid military credentials, fairly conservative, all of which could blow McCain out of the water. A female choice seems too obvious but might help with that base but Clinton, yikes, no.

Thanks for taking the time, can't get enough of your valuable insight. -Kathy H., Honolulu

If I could make a short list for McCain, it would include:

Mitt Romney -- the easiest/safe pick (helps in Mich.)
Tom Ridge -- Would put PA in play; pro-choice position could be a prob
Kay Bailey Hutchison -- see Tom Ridge but if Obama doesn't pick a woman... Carly Fiorina/Meg Whitman -- If either had run for office before, either would make sense; business savvy and a gender play...
Joe Lieberman -- Would help in a place like Florida, maybe in NJ (but not, ironically, CT)
Jeb Bush -- Perhaps the most qualified person to be president on the Republican side, just has a name I.D. problem... Bobby Jindal -- the future of the party but is literally young enough to be McCain's grandson
Mike Huckabee -- Had Clinton been the foe, this would be a much more clever pick than folks realize.

My Obama short list would be: Clinton -- he has NO CHOICE but to consider her seriously but she wouldn't be on my actual short list but she has to be.

Here's the actual short list that I'd recommend:

Evan Bayh -- great first day photo of the Obama girls and the Bayh kids playing together; youthful look to ticket but brings vanilla gravitas and puts Republican Indiana in play
Sam Nunn -- fills int'l experience quotient and could help put GA in play... Jim Webb -- for the reasons you stated but might have too much baggage that will become press distractions
Kathleen Sebelius: she was underwhelming giving SOTU response but her demeanor matches Obama's and would solve the gender issue for Obama if Clinton separation is bitter
Michael Bloomberg: This could be a winning ticket but Bloomberg's NEVER had a real race or an aggressive press corps attacking him; sorry, the NYC folks have treated him with kid gloves.
Chuck Hagel: For his bipartisan image, it's helpful for Obama to have a plausible GOPer on his list... But would Hagel be a team player; you need that with a VP.

Thanks for replying Chuck! I actually didn't expect one, so thanks very much.

Romney: hmm. It seemed he was a little too slick and couldn't connect well with the average blue collar lower/middle class American. Your thoughts?
Tom Ridge: There's a name I hadn't heard of before, but isn't he too connected to Bush to be useful? I like Bush and all, but most of the country doesn't.
Hutchinson: Interesting.
Lieberman: I doubt it. I live in NJ, and we're about as liberal as you can get. And Lieberman would turn off a lot of conservatives, wouldn't he?
Bush: Yeah, agree with your analysis here.
Jindal: I cannot wait until he is the nominee in the 20s.
Huckabee: Could you elaborate? I'm an evangelical and liked Huck, but I didn't think he ever got out of the evangelical niche.

The Dems I mostly agree with. Hagel would be really scary for me as a Republican. But do you really think he would run? OnTheIssues calls him a libertarian-conservative (conservatarian as Bodhi1 would say), while Obama is fairly liberal. He's fairly pro-business and got a 0% from the LCV. And he's anti-health care, not strongly liberal for Social Security, likes lower taxes, and... seems fiscally libertarian. I especially can't see how his anti-health care record will match up with Obama's universal health care plan. -Andrew (aka Online Apps)

Here's how Huckabee could be helpful to McCain; Evangelicals don't seem fired up about McCain; if Southern evangelicals turnout at a lighter clip than expected, then Obama could snag a southern state or two (like GA, NC or even, gasp, MS) because of the big spike in black turnout. Huckabee could fire up and lock up the South again and even fix things a bit in VA. It forces Obama to back to the drawing board on finding "new" states to target.

As for Romney, I think he can help in Mich. (dad was governor); I think he helps out west (spike in Mormon turnout could be difference in CO or NV) and he helps on message; speaks more articulately on the economy than McCain.

As for Hagel... I think Obama has more pro-business instincts than he's let on... so Hagel might be more compatible than folks realize.

Hi Chuck!! I will be watching the place for politics tonight.

But here is my question, your numbers prove that Hillary doesn't have amount needed to win the nomination, but, if she doesn't win could the party nominate her, despite the outcome of all the primaries? -MikeBucc

The remaining Superdelegates that are undeclared have their own issues with Clinton, not Hillary, but Bill. That's Clinton's biggest obstacle...

why not regional primaries instead of these endless state by state with no rhyme nor reason .
it is understandable that states wanted to move up their primary... many feel that they are left out of the candidate selection process. why did the dnc oppose these moves for michigan and florida? -pj chan

It's logical so that's why it'll never happen.

First off, Chuck I want to thank you for the opportunity. Every time I see you on TV I stop whatever I may be doing and turn up the volume on the set. You truly are the best at what you do.

Now the question:
When Clinton eventually drops out, or loses at the convention, how easily do you believe Clinton supporters will get in line behind Obama if the staunch supporters do at all? For instance, my mother, a registered Republican has said she will vote Clinton in the fall if she is the nominee and McCain if Obama takes the Democratic nomination. How do you think it will it play out? Will we see an immense jump in McCain supporters in the polls? -Brandon Kiser

Thanks for the kind words... as for when the Dems come over and unite? I think it will take a few months, not weeks; it will take an effort by Obama to reach out to these folks... I think of Clinton's primary coalition, he can woo seniors fairly effectively and working women, but the rest may be tough... blue collar men may be tough. But after 3 months of Obama defining McCain, expect more Clinton voters to rally around Obama.

I have a question ..this may have been asked already ...but whatever happened to the pemise that the people of Iraq ,would help pay for the war with OIL???? where did it go? -Geneva Keys

Expect this fact to come up in the fall.

Am SO DISAPPOINTED that MSNBC jumped so quickly on the Obama wagon. I know it is OLD news but it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.....I used to think MSNBC was doing it (the news) right. Now I think they have only wanted to be the opposite of Fox Noise even at the expense of being "fair and impartial". -fast eddie-285474

I know this idea that MSNBC is somehow pro-Obama is the conventional wisdom among some, but it's just not the case. In the world of cable news, when things are going good for a candidate, cable makes it seem great. And when things are going bad for a candidate, cable makes it disastrous (see. Rev. Wright).

Reading the tea-leaves over here in Australia. It is clear by all the popular press
that Obama is the shoe in for the Democratic Nominee. As For me I'm not so sure but hey I wont be putting money on it !

Now my question is related to your comment above . Do you think that Mark McKinnon will resign from McCain's team because he considers Obama a more formidable opponent to McCain ? And DO YOU think Obama will be a more formidable opponent than Clinton for the Presidency? If So Why ? ( I personally see them 50/50 split given the race & gender vote) -Barry Rutherford

I think Obama is a question mark; he could be like Reagan in '80 and lead the Democrats to a landslide victory or he could be like Carter in '76 and limp to victory and become a mediocre-to-ineffective president or he could be like Goldwater and be seen as the father of a movement that while unsuccessful this cycle ends up the backbone for a new Dem party coalition in the future. Or maybe he's Dukakis and somehow loses an eminently winnable election. The guy has a higher ceiling and a lower floor than either McCain or Clinton

Hillary is always talking about listening to the voice of the people, well, what about the voice of 95% of the African American Democrats who supported Sen. Obama IN SPITE of the fact that there are still a lot of whites who CANNOT STAND the idea of an African American as President of the United States of America? Neither you nor Russert have really pressed this issue. Why? Is it because you are afraid of offending your white friends/interviewees?

ASK THE D***** QUESTION!!! How do you ignore a major voting block, one which could cost you the election if they decide to stay home after you stole the election from their ccandidate?

I am waiting to hear that question asked and answered... -Delwyn Campbell

I think it's a question that's been asked more and more of Clinton. Just recently, my colleague, Ron Allen, asked her directly this question and she ducked it but she did answer it

I am concerned that Obama gets a pass on any tough questions. After all this time, I still don't feel I know him. I do not want a president who is not subjected to and can not stand up to whatever is thrown at him. And finally, not to beat a dead horse, but I just really don't believe he has a mentor that spews such venom, and he is unaware. I started out thinking he was going to be the next great president. I don't feel that anymore.
My question is why the media is so biased now and why we can't get more unbalanced news coverage, instead of every anchor's opinion. It seems like journalism has really declined to a tabloid level. -Lauren-285498

For those wondering about the media bias question, keep this in mind:

-- the campaign that is losing usually is the one complaining the loudest about coverage
-- most reporters are not biased for a candidate but are biased for access; it's why I think McCain will end up getting a fairer shake than some conservatives believe.

I was a life long Republican who supported My US Representative Zack Space, a Democrat, in the 2006 elections. Due to the fact I voted for Obama in the Democratic Primary in Ohio I am now on the rolls as a Democrat. Do you have any polls or figures showing how many of these conversions may have taken place across the country? -oldfogey
Good question Oldfogey--I have been watching and thinking that this election might do more than redraw the map--it might redefine the electorate.

Some D's will go R--and some R's will go D.

It will be an election that is taught in poli sci classes for years to come. -njb

Well, the only thing we really have to go by is voter regis. numbers in states that track that and clearly the Dem numbers have risen a lot over the last year. The second metric we use is noting the number of folks who self-identify as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else. In our NBC/WSJ polls, we've seen a HUGE spike in folks self-I.D.ing as Dems; moreover, there appears to be a trend of moderate Republicans now self-I.D.ing as independents making the independent electorate seem a bit more conservative than it was a year ago because a lot of the Dem-leaning indies now self-I.D. as Democrats.

Chuck:
In your opinion, is Barack Obama a better candidate for downballot Democrats than Hillary Clinton would be? Specifically I ask that because of Obama's large voter registration drive. Also, on the same token, are downballot candidates like Mark Warner in Virginia going to help Obama be competitive in states that are not usually considered competitive for Democratic presidential candidates? -Scott Isaacs

I do think Obama uniquely helps Democrats down the ballot THIS cycle. Had the '06 senate map been the '08 map, I might have a different opinion and might believe Clinton would be better. But for '08, the answer appears to be Obama; the places where a spike in black turnout match with places Dems are trying to win new House and Senate seats (the South).

Chuck, Have you heard any of these "elitist" accusations before this election? Or is this simply the new popular way to attack a candidate?

Would Senator Clinton really stand to keep these white, blue-collar workers on her side against a Republican?

How do you get "experience" to be the President? Obama is often criticized for not being experienced enough, but what experience do McCain and Clinton have over Obama as President? -Jcpas

Elitist attacks are as old as the Republic. After watching John Adams on HBO, it's clear that elitism was a frequent charge in the politics of that day.

Mr. Todd, Will the Rules and Bylaws meeting be televised? If so, what should we watch for?

Thanks for taking questions. Any chance of this becoming a regular thing for the MSNBC political team like it is for the washingtonpost.com reporters? -hpeterson

Oh yes it will be! We'll be covering it live... I can't wait...

What happens if Obama reaches 2026 BEFORE June 3 ??? -Greybart

NOthing... it'll just be another moment Obama can trumpet but on May 31, the DNC will move the magic number up a bit.

Hi Chuck---I am humbled by your presence once again on Newsvine. As I said on your last appearance, I am an enormous fan. I heard you say on Keith Olbermann last night that within context of dem primaries one could predict (Statistics 101 I think you called it to Keith) who ultimately won any given state based on the size of the black population--if less than 4% or more than 8%? the state goes to Obama. If somewhere in between-the state goes to Hillary Clinton. Based on that rule and given problems Obama has attracting white blue collar voters - how does the electoral college map look for Obama in November? -lisaed

I think it won't be this easy to identify an Obama state or a McCain state based on this metric. Age and education of the state's residents, I think, will be more telling.

Check out the top 10 youngest states in the union: VA, CO and GA are three red states all on the list... should tell us something about Obama's reach

Hi Chuck, Now that it looks like Obama has more or less wrapped up the nomination, it struck me that Ed Rendell would be a really shrewd running mate choice by his campaign that not a lot of people are mentioning. Consider:

- That as a high profile Clinton backer, picking Rendell could represent the olive branch to the Cinton wing of the Party that Obama is probably going to need to extend in order to unite the base, without actually having to put Clinton on the ticket (which I am sure Obama would rather not do).
- That Rendell would really help balance the ticket, as somebody with the governing experience (as Mayor and Governor) that is seen as an Obama weakness, especially against McCain.
- That given that Rendell is Jewish, it would help assuage those who are skeptical of Obama's position on Israel (which has been a significant issue in the primaries and I imagine will only become more prominent in the general), not to mention the group of people who remain convinced that "Barack Hussein Obama" is a secret Muslim.
- That pragmatically speaking, Rendell could really help in crucial areas of the electoral map. Pennsylvania is obviously going to be an important swing state in the fall. I also think that Rendell would help quite a bit in Florida, given its older population (and significant Jewish presence). If Obama can win Pennsylvania and Florida, along with some of the traditional Republican states that it looks like he has a shot in, it's hard to see him losing the election in November.

To me, this seems like a lot of bang for the VP buck. Am I missing something that would make Rendell a potentially problematic selection? Do you think this is a plausible scenario?

Thanks and keep up the good work! -MattF83

Rendell is an interesting idea: some Dems whisper to me that he can't vet; i'll let you decide what that means. He's also not seen as someone who stays on message but he did a great job for Clinton in the PA primary.

What kind of effect will Ted Kennedy's illness have on the general election? -Dottie-286078

This is hard to know; Obama will miss Kennedy as a traveling surrogate.

Hi Chuck! Love your insight.

Why not Gov. Strickland for Obama's VP? Wouldn't that help carry Ohio? With Obama up in PA, MI...as well as up in IA, MN, WI, CO, NM, OR, WA, with the regular DEM strongholds...

Wouldn't that lock up a win? -Dave Morgan

Strickland's a name that will be on the short list; I just don't think he works well with Obama; would have been a better fit for Clinton.

Hello and welcome. We have been waiting all day! Thanks for being here? Can you say a little about yourself? Short Bio? Fast rise as an MSNBC director? -oldfogey

Before NBC, I was at a publication called The Hotline, part of the national journal. I ran the publication for about 6 years and worked there for nearly 15. It's a trade publication on politics and helped me learn things from soup to nuts about campaigns on all levels.

------ Original Post ------

The results of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries could be a major milestone for Barack Obama on the path to the Democratic nomination – but will it be, as Hillary Clinton's campaign points out, a merely symbolic one? Or is this truly the beginning of the end game?

From the Republican camp, we have Mark McKinnon recently pledging that he will step down as McCain's media consultant if Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.

I'm Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director. Please join me again for another Q&A session here on Newsvine, on Wednesday, May 21 from 3:00-4:00 PM ET, where we'll be discussing U.S. Politics and the unfolding presidential election. Feel free to post your questions here in advance.

Also, due to the number of responses during my last Q&A, I'll likely only be able to answer the most popular submissions. So, please remember to vote for your favorite questions by clicking the small arrow in each comment box.

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